Imphal, March 9: Manipur elections 2017 was one of the most awaited after Assam Elections in 2016 in Northeast India as the entire region waited with bated breaths to witness the battle between the 16-yr-long fast of Irom Sharmila versus the 15-yr-long rule of Okram Ibobi Singh. As we all wait for the election results which is scheduled for March 11, the exit polls forecast ran by TNT- The Northeast Today shows that there is a 50-50 chance of BJP and Congress winning the elections this time although not with a very clear majority.
Again, the exit poll forecast by CVoter predicts the BJP is likely to win the maximum number of seats in the 60-strong Manipur Legislative Assembly election. According to the CVoter exit polls, the BJP is expected to win 25 to 31 of the 60 seats up for grabs, with the Congress trailing second at a probable 17 to 23 seats.
The remaining seats are likely to be grabbed by regional parties like Irom Sharmila’s People’s Resurgence and Justice Alliance (PRJA) which has been able to make an impact on the people this elections.
According to NDTV exit poll predictions, from a total of 60 seats, BJP is expected to claim 25-31 seats followed by Congress with 17-23 seats ending with other regional parties including PRJA with 9-15 seats. Region wise, the BJP is expected to have gained the lion’s share of seats in Outer Manipur and New Districts, and its inroads in the Inner Manipur constituencies is said to have cut into the Congress’seat share.
However, It may be mentioned that even if the BJP wins, it will not be by virtue of a clean majority and the support of regional parties will be influential to BJP in this regard. In this scenario, the parties like Naga People’s Front (NPF) and even PRJA can play an influential part.
Manipur went to elections in two phases on March 4 and 9 but subsequently, another round of re-polling was held on March 9 due to election malpractices.
As it is, the battle clearly seems to be taking place between BJP and Congress but the role of regional parties cannot be undermined. It will be interesting to see how accurate the exit poll results will be.
The exit poll results have been analysed on the basis of a poll conducted by TNT-The Northeast Today during January-February 2017. To tally the results, the survey results of NDTV and CVoter exit polls have also been taken into consideration